We’re still watching for signs of possible slowdowns in the domestic economy.  The Conference Board reported yesterday 2/18/16 that its Leading Economic Index® declined slightly again in January by 0.2%.  This follows a 0.3% decline for December.  For specific report details see:  conference-board.org.

We’re also monitoring another indicator of recession risk called Smoothed US Recession Probabilities.  It may be found at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.  Here is the link:  https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

SOURCE: Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N, February 19, 2016.

As you can see, the risk has increased to the most since the last recession end in June 2009.  Its start was in December 2007.  To be sure, the latest number comes in only at 3.84.  It really needs to exceed 10 to become very worrisome.  In the meantime, it bears watching.  We will do so.

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